Air Cargo Rate Forecast Rises 5%-15% for FBA Sellers
Xeneta Reverses Its Rate Forecast
Xeneta now expects long-term air freight contract rates to increase 5%-15% in 2026, FreightWaves reported July 17. The analytics firm had previously forecast a 5%-10% decline.
Combined spot and contract rates rose 17% year over year in the first half. Spot rates increased 22%, long-term rates rose 11%, and airline spot prices jumped 40% from May through June.
Capacity and Fuel Raise Costs
Middle East airspace and airport disruption initially removed more than 12% of global air cargo capacity, while higher jet fuel prices added further pressure. Xeneta expects full-year supply to grow about 2%, below demand growth.
June air cargo demand increased 7% year over year, supported by semiconductor and AI hardware shipments. AI-related products now represent about 10% of total air cargo volume.
China E-Commerce Air Demand Slows
China’s low-value e-commerce exports fell 7% year over year in May, the sixth consecutive monthly decline, according to Xeneta. New low-value import rules in the United States and European Union have weakened a major source of air cargo growth.
Update the FBA Fee Calculation
China-based FBA sellers should model the air freight portion of landed cost at three levels: current quote multiplied by 1.05, 1.10 and 1.15. Fuel, security and war-risk surcharges should remain separate where the forwarder does not include them in the base rate.
Total FBA cost per unit should include international freight, customs duty and tax, destination handling, Amazon inbound charges, storage and fulfillment fees. Air freight should be reserved for inventory where the avoided stockout cost exceeds the rate premium.
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